SIX reasons why a second Trump term would be terrible for human rights in China
Republicans who say Trump would be good on human rights are deceiving themselves or lying to us
If Donald Trump returns to the White House, every indication suggests that U.S. policies to promote human rights in China will be deprioritized or worse: traded away for other things by a man who prides himself on dealmaking.
To be fair, I credit the first Trump Administration with ripping the bandaid off the Bush/Obama “strategic reassurance” framework which assumed that China would play by the rules if the U.S. recognized their rise. Rather, Chinese leaders pocketed the concessions and cracked down.
And yes, President Trump signed several pieces of China human rights legislation into law (a low bar). And his Administration certified the loss of Hong Kong’s autonomy and blocked import of items made with Uyghur forced labor. But these were staff-initiated, not from Trump himself.
But a second term would happen in a much different context. Consider the following:
1. Trump’s praise of Xi and his “iron fist” rule
Xi Jinping is an authoritarian leader of a highly repressive government overseeing a genocide. And Donald Trump admires him:
"He's now president for life, president for life. And he's great. And look, he was able to do that. I think it's great. Maybe we'll have to give that a shot someday." March 3, 2018
“I had President Xi, who’s a friend of mine, who’s a very, very good man. And I don’t blame China.” April 12, 2018
“President Xi and I have a very strong and personal relationship. He and I are the only two people that can bring about massive and very positive change, on trade and far beyond, between our two great Nations.” December 3, 2018
“I like President Xi a lot. I consider him a friend, and – but I like him a lot. I’ve gotten to know him very well. He’s a strong gentleman, right? Anybody that – he’s a strong guy, tough guy.” (June 30, 2019)
“I know President Xi of China very well. He is a great leader who very much has the respect of his people. He is also a good man in a ‘tough business.’” August 14, 2019
“[Xi] is strong, sharp and powerfully focused.” February 7, 2020
“[Xi] rules with an iron fist 1.5 billion people, yeah I'd say he's smart.” September 3, 2022
“[Xi] runs 1.4 billion people with an iron fist. Smart, brilliant, everything perfect.” June 20, 2023
“And I like President Xi a lot, he was a very good friend of mine during my term.” February 4, 2024
“[Xi]’s a brilliant man. He controls 1.4 billion people with an iron fist.” July 20, 2024
2. Trump admires China’s authoritarian governance
Trump said (falsely) that Article II of the Constitution gives him “the right to do whatever I want.” No wonder he’s envious of Xi’s ability to rule with an “iron fist.” He’s even promised to be a dictator on day one in office.
Trump has been dismissive of democratic processes other than as a tool to legitimize his power, echoing the “Rule By Law” approach that the CCP uses to rule China. He is contemptuous of freedom of the press, calling for violence against journalists, and just this week threatening to revoke the license of a TV network because he didn’t like the way they treated him.
I could go on and on with examples. The point is that Trump is envious of rather than repulsed by the autocratic power that Xi wields. (See “The Coming MAGA-CCP alignment ”)
And Trump’s team is planning to help him realize this. Project 2025 would align governance under Trump close to the Xi model, with power centralized in his person as President and Party Leader, empowering Trump him to exert partisan control over the reins of government and use state power to impress the Party’s economic, cultural and social positions on society. Plans include installing Party loyalists in government positions, putting independent federal agencies under Party control, removing independence of the judiciary and law enforcement, and using the military for domestic law enforcement.
3. Transactional Trump wants deals with Xi, not human rights accountability
In early 2020, Trump was hyping “our just signed giant Trade Deal with China [that] will bring both the USA & China closer together in so many other ways. Terrific working with President Xi, a man who truly loves his country. Much more to come!” When news of the coronavirus emerged, Trump repeatedly praised Xi’s response, such as “China has been working very hard to contain the Coronavirus. The United States greatly appreciates their efforts and transparency. It will all work out well. In particular, on behalf of the American People, I want to thank President Xi!”
Trump was very open about prioritizing deals over human rights. When asked in a 2020 Axios interview why he had not imposed sanctions on Chinese officials for the abuses in Xinjiang, Trump suggested that the sanctions could derail economic negotiations, saying that they were “in the middle of a major trade deal.”
Only when COVID-19 hit the United States response did Trump start criticizing the Chinese government to shift blame away from criticism of his Administration’s response, even using the racist moniker “China virus.”
Last month, Trump promised that his first call in the Oval Office would be to dictator Xi Jinping to demand that he revive the previously agreed-to $50 billion agriculture deal.
4. Trump’s indifference to Uyghurs, Tibetans, Hong Kongers
Xi will expect something in return for Trump’s ag deal. There is evidence Trump would throw Uyghurs, Tibetans and Hong Kongers under the bus if Xi asked.
As former National Security Advisor John Bolton wrote in his book, “At the opening dinner of the Osaka G-20 meeting in June 2019, with only interpreters present, Xi had explained to Trump why he was basically building concentration camps in Xinjiang. According to our interpreter, Trump said that Xi should go ahead with building the camps, which Trump thought was exactly the right thing to do … The National Security Council’s top Asia staffer, Matthew Pottinger, told me that Trump said something very similar during his November 2017 trip to China.”
Bolton also recounted that Trump had said he did not want to “get involved” when widespread protests broke out in Hong Kong.
Notably, Trump has also called for concentration camps for the mass detention of civilians based on group identity, in this case immigrants from the Global South, akin to the mass detention camps built by Chinese authorities to put away Uyghurs and other mostly Muslim Turkic peoples for reeducation and forced labor.
5. Trump is soft on democratic Taiwan
Would Trump sell out Taiwan to get his “Great Trade Deal” with his “very good friend” Xi?
He made comments this year that cast doubt on whether, as president again, he would bring the U.S. to Taiwan’s defense. Trump said in July that Taiwan should pay for U.S. protection while accusing it of stealing business from the U.S. chip industry. Also, Trump’s 2024 Republican Party platform omits any mention of Taiwan, the first time the GOP has failed to do so since before Ronald Reagan.
6. Trump doesn’t respect human rights
Donald Trump has never exhibited respect for human rights or rule law, from calling for the execution of the Central Park Five to his recent comments about migrants being subhuman with genes that make them prone to murder, and everything in between. To list all the examples of his disregard for civil and human rights would be book-length.
In office his foreign policy never prioritized human rights. Efforts credited to his name were either standard State Department actions or measures pushed by his staff. It should be noted that most of the high-profile actions, such as signing the Uyghur Human Rights Policy Act, the Executive Order on Hong Kong, and the State Department’s Uyghur genocide determination, were taken in 2020 and 2021, after Trump had pivoted against Xi in the COVID blame game, when Trump’s advisors were able to sell him on the measures as part of an election-year tough-on-China message.
What would a second Trump term would mean on China human rights policy?
Start with Trump’s repeated praise of Xi and his iron fist rule. He identifies with the oppressor rather than with the oppressed. That is not the mindset of a leader who will take human rights into consideration when making policy on China. Or making policy in America either.
To be fair, Trump’s emphasis on tariffs as the vanguard of his policy toward China (despite the fact he doesn’t know how tariffs work) suggest an approach favoring decoupling and economic nationalism. There can be a human rights dimension to such a policy, such as limiting American consumers’ exposure to goods made with forced labor. But it is important to note that a policy of economic disengagement (or engagement for that matter) is NOT in itself a human rights policy. Without linkages, triggers and conditions, such a policy does not incentivize improvements in human rights behavior.
I have many Republican friends who are genuine in their concern about the human rights of the people of China, and who work hard to promote policies that seek improvements and impose accountability for human rights violations. Bipartisan (or, I would like to think, nonpartisan) work grounded in the common belief in a principled and moral foreign policy has led to many policy achievements.
But that’s not what we will get in a second Trump term. There is nothing principled or moral about Donald Trump. It’s all about him and his grievances. Everything is transactional.
Maybe someone can make a case that Trump’s transactionalism can be leveraged for human rights policy. I welcome the argument. But I don’t see it, for the six reasons listed above.
Commoditizing human rights is not valuing human rights.
At its heart, human rights policymaking is grounded in the idea that all peoples, in every country, have aspirations for freedom and liberty, and that governments have obligations, including under international law, to let those aspirations flourish. That’s not how Donald Trump views society, to say the least. Just yesterday, he promised to invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to round up and deport human beings he has said are “animals” and “poisoning the blood” of the nation (directly invoking Nazi rhetoric). This law authorized the placement of Japanese-Americans in internment camps, among other human rights violations.
The U.S. government will be unable to convey this sense of shared humanity with the people of China under a president who admires how their leader represses their human rights. The U.S. government will have no moral authority to criticize China for putting Uyghur in mass detention camps when President Trump is putting undesirable people in mass detention camps.
You can say that Trump will be “tough on China.” But anyone who says Trump would be good on human rights in China are deceiving themselves or lying to us. More likely, he would trade human rights away in a hot minute.