Viktor Orbán, Authoritarian Matchmaker
Do the Orbán-Trump-Putin-Xi bromances augur a Trump-Xi alignment?
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has made Hungary into an Illiberal Center of Excellence in the heart of Europe. He has turned Budapest into a trendy destination for far-right influencers and like-minded authoritarian leaders. Let’s call it Orbán’s Strongman Cave.
Associating with Viktor Orbán is validating. It earns you membership in the Ethno-nationalist Club. It confirms your entry into “the Global Anti-Globalist Alliance” of national conservatism. Orbán-aligning is virtue signaling for politicians who value hierarchy and power and scorn equality and justice.
Orbán has created bonds with Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump based on shared values and politics. Each has created realms of Personal Rule, either by building parties around themselves or co-opting long-established parties into cults of personality. There are also clear affinities between Trump and Putin and between Putin and Xi. Doesn’t the transitive property suggest a coming alignment between Xi and Trump? And what would that mean for U.S. China policy?
Orbán-Xi: Orbán warmly hosted Xi in May 2024 during the latter’s tour of Europe. Prior to the visit, Xi sent Orbán a “love letter” pledging friendship and “mutually beneficial cooperation.” Orbán called "China is one of the pillars of the new world order," Xi cited “deep friendship” with Hungarian leaders and described Hungary as a trusted “traveling companion” for China.
Orbán-Putin: Orbán has refused to align with fellow NATO and European Union member states in seeking to isolate and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and frustrated efforts to arm Ukrainians. Orbán has positioned himself as Putin’s best friend in the EU, being the only head of state to congratulate Putin on his sham reelection.
Orbán-Trump: In March, the former President hosted Orbán at his Mar-a-lago estate following an event at the Trump-aligned Heritage Foundation steps from the U.S. Capitol. In April Trump said he was ready to renew a right-wing alliance with Orbán if reelected in a video message to a Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) event in Budapest, where the American participants lauded Orbán’s Hungary as a Christian nationalist, anti-LGBTQ, anti-immigrant promised land. Orbán even copied Trump’s nativist slogan in promising to “Make Europe Great Again” when Hungary takes over the rotating EU presidency.
Putin-Xi: The increasing strategic ties between Russia and China have come with stronger personal ties between Putin and Xi. The two countries have increased military cooperation, including alleged Chinese aid to Russia’s military effort, and have collaborated to change the international rules to elevate their versions of sovereign rights over universal human rights.
Putin-Trump: Trump’s affinity for Putin, his refusal to criticize Putin’s actions, and the multiple links between Trump’s associates and Russian actors are very well documented. Trump has continued this affection for Putin since leaving office, and has promised to do the two things that would most benefit Putin – cut aid to Ukraine and withdraw the U.S. from NATO – if reelected.
Trump-Xi? Trump has called Xi “smart,” “brilliant” “strong,” “a good man,” and “great.” Trump praised the Communist Party of China’s confirmation of Xi as leader for life with “Maybe we'll have to give that a shot someday." Trump admires Xi for ruling with “an iron fist.” Trump has refused to express support for Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. Trump has blamed Xi for the COVID pandemic but that has not stopped him from praising him personally, even in recent weeks.
On the political and ideological level, there are vast similarities in the behaviors of the parties run by these four men and the way they govern. They all promote an assertive nationalism grounded in hierarchies of ethnicity, religion, and gender. They reinforce this agenda through patriotic education, rejection of plurality, emphasis on traditional gender roles, marginalization of LGBTQ persons and other out-groups, and demonization of immigrants. This agenda is framed as retvrning[1] the nation to an idealized past glory, to a time when such hierarchies were the norm and the people left out did not have the ability to assert their rights.
And these four men have kinship on the personal level. They’re strongmen. They value hierarchy and the exercise of power. They have no respect or use for equality and justice. They have each others’ backs. Xi visited Putin in Moscow days after Putin was given an arrest warrant for war crimes by the ICC. Putin and Orbán came to Trump’s defense after he was convicted of a felony. Just last month, Trump praised by name Xi and Putin (and for good measure, Korean dictator Kim Jong Un) for being “on top of their game.”
Any punditry and analysis about what U.S. policy toward China might be in a second Trump Administration should start with the fundamentals – the ideological and personal bonds between the men making the policies of the two countries.
Viktor Orbán has masterfully set up the geopolitical equivalent of a chat group for Strongmen leaders. We know Xi is in it. We know Trump is in it. Do the math.
[1] Misspelling intentional: https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=retvrn